Analysis: West Virginia's primary election shows fault lines, and November's race for governor will be key

The West Virginia Weakly Election Extra

Welcome back to the West Virginia Weakly.

Following Tuesday’s primary election, we asked West Virginia University political science professor Sam Workman what he thinks the results mean heading into November’s general election.

He sent us the following and today, we’re sending it to you.

This is the sort of thing I meant when I said last week that I wanted to expand the scope of this newsletter, to make it more than simply a Saturday roundup of news from around the state, but also a place for us to discuss politics and anything else that strikes us as important.

Workman’s analysis gave me something to chew on — food for thought heading into this fall when voters will decide how the state proceeds from here.

Let us know what you think.

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Heartfelt thanks to Sam Workman for putting pen to paper for the WV Weakly. The following are his thoughts about this week’s primary election and what we might be in store for come November.

West Virginia’s primary election on Tuesday saw races for the U.S. Senate, Congress and Governor that will shape the state’s politics and governance for the next decade.

“Babydog” (and our current governor) will almost certainly land in Washington. A contentious Republican primary for governor revealed old divisions in the GOP. And the race for West Virginia’s 1st Congressional district blunted the fervor around the January 6th storming of the U.S. Capitol. 

Given Republican dominance up and down the ballot in recent cycles, the 2024 primary election effectively served as the general election for many races. The story of this most recent primary is centered on contention within the GOP as the central animating feature of governance and politics in the U.S. – normal for a primary, but in hyper-drive for West Virginia.

Gov. Jim Justice defeated a challenge from Rep. Alex Mooney in commanding fashion. Despite the financial woes of his family businesses and questions around the performance of several executive branch agencies, Justice easily dispatched an able and aggressive politician in Mooney.

At odds in recent years with Sen. Joe Manchin, Justice’s win maintains a particular brand of West Virginia legislative politicking – general support for investment in the state, whether that be from public or private sources with a strong bent towards economic development and, especially, energy issues. 

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The Republican primary for governor was much more contentious. Mostly a two-way race, Attorney General Patrick Morrisey edged a more traditional conservative in Moore Capito, the former chair of the West Virginia House Judiciary Committee and the son of Sen. Shelley Moore Capito. While much of the campaigning centered on the cultural war, Morrisey’s win definitely signals a shift in the center of gravity to the right. 

Elsewhere, incumbent U.S. House member Carol Miller easily coasted past Derrick Evans, who was convicted and served three months in prison for his role in the events of January 6th, 2021. Miller never seemed worried about Evans, despite his status as a prominent personality on conservative media outlets and his centrality to the events of that day.

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Down the ballot, action on the conservative side in legislative races and statewide races for leadership in executive branch agencies show some fault lines in the Republican party.

The race for Attorney General saw state Auditor J.B. McCuskey come away with a win over state Sen. Mike Stuart (R-Kanawha), who ran Donald Trump’s campaign in West Virginia in 2016 and was later appointed — under Trump — as U.S. Attorney for the Southern District. McCuskey, a champion of the use of data in rational policy making, has revolutionized the state’s approach to fiscal responsibility.

Meanwhile, Senate President Craig Blair (R-Berkeley) lost his primary in a challenge from the right in his own party – with former Army National Guardsman and Martinsburg attorney Tom Willis coming away with a win. This marks the second time in four years that the West Virginia Senate’s GOP leader has been ousted in a primary, with Mitch Carmichael being booted in 2020’s primary, following the teacher strikes in 2018 and 2019. 

Despite Republicans holding a supermajority in both houses of the Legislature, statehouse races on the whole likely signal a move farther right in the next session.

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So, why all the attention to the Republican primaries? And what do the spate of races portend for the general? For many of these races, the Republican primary will effectively translate to those who will be the winners come November. 

Barring some sort of monumental collapse, Gov. Justice will almost assuredly replace Sen. Joe Manchin. For Democrats, locally and nationally, this is a sea-change. Despite fundamental agreement on issues of economic development and federal investment, a presumptive Sen. Justice will behave drastically differently on issues of immigration (in campaigning for the primary, Justice said the southern border would be his top issue) and on appointments to the federal judiciary, among other social and cultural issues. 

Progressives have long wanted to unseat Manchin, but they will almost certainly confront the realities of a unified Republican contingent in West Virginia’s congressional delegation come next year. For national Democrats, Justice’s primary win not only jeopardizes control of the U.S. Senate — it could very well allow for the redistribution of national GOP resources to battleground states in Ohio, Montana, Michigan and Pennsylvania.

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The forthcoming governor’s race is potentially even more interesting. As West Virginia’s Attorney General, Morrisey carried the race true to his usual form, touting a successful record litigating polices put forth by the Obama and Biden administrations. Morrisey combined those successes with blistering criticism of the cultural left, especially toward transgender rights.

But there should be a moment of pause for Morrisey. Despite tremendous financial backing and a presumed advantage in the primary, he maintained roughly the same level of support throughout the campaign – about a third of the vote in the Republican primary. Though stable, Morrisey’s support did not grow — and many watchers of West Virginia politics believed Moore Capito to have had the momentum moving into election day.

All of this matters as we head towards November. On the Democratic side, Huntington Mayor Steve Williams will roll out a record of tremendous economic success for his city — combined with a laissez-faire stance on social issues. While each candidate may tout a small government approach to business, the cultural divide will be on the ballot in the general election.

Still, a primary is not a general election that decides who winds up in office. Morrisey will have former president Donald Trump – now the presumptive Republican presidential nominee – on the ballot.

Turnout will be much higher than the abysmal rate we saw in the 2024 primary, which barely squeaked past 30%, according to the West Virginia Secretary of State’s office.

And the Democratic primary for U.S. Senate showed West Virginia the extreme divides that exist within the party — with Democrats in the southern coalfields predisposed to progressive candidates, and the northern half of the state more concerned with the environment and mainstream Democratic politics. 

The question remains: Can an economically conservative gubernatorial candidate turn out the progressive leaning coalfields? Williams’ base of support is Huntington. He will need Charleston, Beckley, and the towns centered on a recreational economy along the New and Gauley Rivers to show up at the polls. Turnout is more certain for Morrisey, who can count on the replay of the 2020 election to turn out MAGA supporters, feeling wronged in the last election.

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West Virginia is a state in transition – socially, politically, and economically. There is palpable tension between the eastern side of the state — the West Virginia of rivers, streams, mountains, and clean air — situated next to a traditional inclination in the west that learns towards a focus on energy, manufacturing, and resource exploitation.

Each party continues to grapple with cohesive messaging along the fault lines between these seemingly inconsistent visions of an economic future.

The Republican Party has positioned itself well on the latter vision with inroads to the former – especially under Gov. Justice, who is both a long-time coal executive and resort owner dependent on a more environmentally pristine vision of West Virginia’s economy. 

Democrats thus far have struggled more with this duality. Williams’ gubernatorial candidacy will test the party’s ability to rein in and marry these disparate visions of the future for the state.

Sam Workman is the Director of West Virginia University’s Institute for Policy Research and Public Affairs, John D. "Jay" Rockefeller School of Policy and Politics. He is also a professor of Political Science at WVU’s Eberly College of Arts and Sciences